استفاده تلفیقی از مدل AquaCrop و روش توماس- فیرینگ در بررسی عملکرد گندم دیم

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

چکیده

یکی از پیشنهادات کارشناسان برای احیای دریاچه ارومیه تبدیل اراضی آبی به دیم می­باشد، چرا که نزولات جوی کاهش یافته و تغییر اقلیم و افزایش مصارف کشاورزی موجب قطع حق‌آبه اکولوژیکی رودخانه‌ها در حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه شده است، در این میان کشت گندم دیم به‌عنوان یک راهکار مفید برای جایگزینی محصولات کشت آبی از طرف کارشناسان مرتبط مطرح است. از این رو بررسی مهم‌ترین عامل محدود‌کننده عملکرد دیم یعنی میزان رطوبت قابل دسترس گیاه ضروری به‌نظر می‌رسد. بدلیل پرهزینه و زمان‌بر بودن آزمایش‌های مزرعه‌ای جهت تعیین عملکرد محصول با دقت بالا استفاده از مدل‌هایی مانند مدل AquaCrop که در آن‌ عملکرد محصول بر اساس تابعی از رطوبت در دسترس گیاه محاسبه می‌شود، مطلوب است. در این پژوهش پس از واسنجی و اعتبار‌سنجی مدل گیاهی یاد شده برای شبیه‌سازی عملکرد گندم دیم دشت تبریز در دوره آماری 35 ساله (1395- 1360)، متغیرهای هواشناسی منطقه مورد مطالعه با به‌کار‌گیری سری زمانی توماس- فیرینگ در دوره آماری مذکور برای 5 سال آتی پیش‌بینی شدند و سپس عملکرد گندم دیم توسط مدل گیاهی برای سال‌های 1396 تا 1400 تخمین زده شد. در پایان راهکار مدیریتی جهت افزایش پتانسیل تولید گندم دیم ارائه گردید. بر اساس نتایج این پژوهش، توانمندی تلفیقی مدل گیاهی و سری زمانی نامبرده به‌ترتیب در شبیه‌سازی عملکرد محصول و پیش‌بینی اطلاعات اقلیمی در منطقه بالا است. نتایج نشان داد که علیرغم عدم تغییر معنی‌دار بارش، بدلیل افزایش دما، عملکرد گندم در پنج سال آتی 13 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین به‌دلیل مکفی نبودن بارش پیش‌بینی شده، انجام آبیاری تکمیلی به مقدار 40 میلی‌متر برای کشت گندم دیم در منطقه پیش‌بینی گردید تا پتانسیل تولید افزایش یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Using Combined AquaCrop Model and Thomas- Fering Method in Analyzing Rainfed Wheat Yield

چکیده [English]

One of the experts' suggestions for restoring Lake Urmia is to convert irrigated lands in to rainfed farming in the Urmia lake basin. Rainfed wheat farming might be considered as one of the effective alternatives to the irrigated areas. So, evaluating the soil available moisture as the most important limiting factor of the rainfed wheat farming is necessary. Since the field experiments are costly and time-consuming, application of the crop yield simulating models, e.g. AquaCrop which can estimate the crop yield based on soil water content with high accuracy, would be desirable. In this study, after calibration and validation of the mentioned model for simulating rainfed wheat yield in Tabriz plain during a period of 35-years (1360- 1395 HJ), the meteorological variables of the studied region were predicted for a 5-years ahead prediction interval using Thomas- Fering method. The rainfed wheat yield was then estimated using Aquacrop model for the period between 1396 and 1400 (HJ). Finally, management scenario for increasing the potential of rainfed wheat was proposed. The results of this study confirmed the ability of the conjunctive crop model and time series technique for simulating crop yield and meteorological variables in the studied region. Results showed that despite no significant change will be occurred in rainfall amount, ascending trend of the air-temperatures will cause an increase of about 13% in rainfed wheat yield during the next five years. Also, due to precipitation insufficiency for rainfed wheat farming, predicted supplemental irrigation is recommended equal to 40 mm, to increase the potential yield production.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Calibration
  • Crop Model
  • Supplemental irrigation
  • Tabriz plain
  • Validation
  • Yield
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