تعیین مناسب‌ترین روش زمین آماری تغییرات مکانی حداکثر بارش روزانه در حوضه آبخیز آتشگاه استان اردبیل

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

چکیده

هدف این پژوهش، انتخاب مناسب‌ترین روش درون‌یابی برای برآورد تغییرات مکانی بارش روزانه در حوضه آتشگاه اردبیل می‌باشد. برای این منظور، از آمار 9 ایستگاه باران­سنجی آب منطقه‌ای استان اردبیل استفاده گردید. پس از انجام آزمون‌های همگنی و استقلال داده‌ها، روش‌های درون‌یابی کریجینگ و کوکریجینگ جهانی با مدل برازش دایره‌ای، کروی، نمایی، گوسی و نرمال و همچنین روش­های عکس فاصله وزنی، تابع شعاع محور،  تخمین­گر عام و تخمین­گر موضعی با استفاده از نرم‌افزار ArcGIS مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفتند. به منظور مقایسه و ارزیابی روش‌های استفاده‌ شده، از معیارهای آماریMean ، RMS، ASE، MS و RMSS  استفاده شد. در هر روش به کمترین خطای آماری، کمترین رتبه و به بیشترین خطا، بیشترین رتبه اختصاص داده شد و جمع رتبه‌ها جهت مقایسه مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که روش کوکریجینگ جهانی با مدل برازش دایره‌ای، با کسب حداقل رتبه، مناسب‌ترین روش درون‌یابی بارش برای دوره بازگشت 2 ساله و روش کوکریجینگ جهانی با مدل برازش نرمال، با کسب پایین‌ترین رتبه، مناسب‌ترین روش درون‌یابی بارش روزانه برای دوره­های بازگشت 5، 10، 25، 50 و 100 می­باشد. مقدار متوسط وزنی حداکثر بارش روزانه حوضه آبخیز آتشگاه برای دوره­های بازگشت 2، 5، 10، 25، 50 و 100 ساله به­ترتیب، 5/37، 19/48، 49/51، 32/53، 14/54 و 69/57 میلی­متر تعیین شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Determination of the Most Appropriate Geostatistical Method of Spatial Interpolation for Maximum Daily Rainfalls in Atashgah Basin in the Ardabil Province

چکیده [English]

The aim of this study was selecting the most suitable interpolation method to estimate the spatial variation of maximum daily rainfall at the Atashgah basin, Ardabil. For this purpose, data of 9 rainfall gauge stations of Ardabil Province Water Regional Company were used. Homogeneity and independence of data were tested. Universal and ordinary Kriging and Cokriging interpolation methods were evaluated by circular, spherical, exponential and Gaussian regression models and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Radial Basis Function (RBF), General and local estimators using Arc GIS software. To compare and evaluate the mentioned methods, statistical parameters of Mean, RMS, ASE, MS and RMSS were used. In each method, the lowest rank was devoted to the lowest statistical error and the highest rank was devoted to the highest statistical error, and then sum of the ranks was used to compare the interpolation methods. Results showed that, in the case of 2 years return period, ordinary Cokriging by circular regression model and for 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years return periods, ordinary Cokriging by Gaussian regression model, with the lowest ranks, were the most suitable interpolation methods in estimation of spatial variation of maximum daily rainfall. The weighted average of the maximum daily rainfall of Atashgah basin for the return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years were determined equal to 37.5, 48.19, 49.41, 53.32, 54.14 and 57.69 mm, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cokriging
  • Deterministic Models
  • Homogeneity
  • Kriging
  • Return Period
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