تحلیل روند تغییرات تدریجی و سریع عوامل هیدرواقلیمی حوضه آبریز ( مطالعه موردی : حوضه لیقوان چای )

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز

2 استاد گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز

3 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

       در این تحقیق، تحلیل روند تغییرات تدریجی و سریع متغیرهای هیدرواقلیمی حوضه آبریز لیقوان و نیز تعیین دوره­های طبیعی (ایستا) و تغییریافته صورت گرفته است. برای این منظور، از روش من­کندال مرسوم (MK1) و اصلاح شده (MK3) و پتیت و برای تعیین شیب خط روند از روش تخمین­گر سن استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد مقادیر جریان رودخانه لیقوان­چای (در ایستگاه هروی) در همه مقیاس­های زمانی مورد بررسی دارای روند نزولی می­باشد. در فصل بهار، تمام متغیر­های مرتبط با بارش روند کاهشی نشان دادند. در مورد متغیرهای دمای هوا (میانگین، حداکثر و حداقل)، نتایج نشان داد که در اکثر مقیاس­های زمانی روند افزایشی وجود دارد که این روند در ماه­های دی تا اردیبهشت بسیار معنی­دار بود. همچنین، اختلاف دمای حداکثر و حداقل نیز روند افزایشی نشان داد. از طرفی، روند سری زمانی نم نسبی هوا نزولی (به­ویژه در زمستان) بود. می­توان نتیجه گرفت که ترکیب همه این تغییرات اثر معنی­داری در کاهش رواناب خروجی حوضه داشته است. نتایج آزمون پتیت نیز نشان داد که آبدهی لیقوان­چای (در ایستگاه هروی) دارای نقطه تغییر و شکست می­باشد که  متوسط آبدهی در دوره اخیر کاهش 35 درصدی نسبت به دوره اول دارد. اغلب متغیرهای اقلیمی مورد مطالعه (مانند دما و نم­نسبی) تغییر ناگهانی داشتند که زمان تغییر این متغیرها و نیز آبدهی حوضه در ایستگاه هروی در اواسط دهه1370 می­باشد. در رابطه با آبدهی ایستگاه لیقوان در بالادست حوضه­، فرض صفر مبتنی بر وجود نقطه تغییر ناگهانی رد ­شد. بنابراین، در کنار عوامل اقلیمی، تاثیر عوامل انسانی نیز در کاهش رواناب حوضه (در ایستگاه هروی) موثر بوده­اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Trend Analysis of Gradual and Rapid Variations of Hydro-Climatological Factors ( Case study: Lighvanchai Basin)

نویسندگان [English]

  • R Kanani 1
  • A Fakheri-Fard 2
  • MA Ghorbani 3
  • Y Dinpashoh 3
1 Ph.D. student, Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Univ. of Tabriz, Iran
2 Prof. Dept. of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Univ. of Tabriz, Iran
3 Associate Prof. Dept. of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Univ. of Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this research, gradual and rapid changes of hydro-climatological variables, trends were analyzed for the Lighvanchai basin. Also, the natural (stationary) and impacted periods were identified. For this purpose, the traditional Mann-Kendall (MK1), modified (MK3) and Pettitt methods were used and for determination of the trend line slope the Senʼs estimator was used. Results showed that streamflow values of Lighvanchai River (in Hervy station) had a downward trend in the all time scales. In the spring, all precipitation related variables showed a decreasing trend. In the case of temperature variables, there was an increasing trend at the most of the studied time scales, which were significant from January to  May. Furthermore, the differences between Tmax and Tmin showed an increasing trend. On the other hand, air relative humidity time series showed a decreasing trend (specially in winter). It could be concluded that the combination of these changes led to decreasing trend in basin runoff. The result of Pettitt test showed that  the streamflow of  Lighvanchai (in Hervy) had a sudden change point, so that the average discharge in the recent period had been decreased about 35% compared to the first period. Most of studied climatic variables such as air temperature and RH, had a sudden change point that the date changes of these variables and the basin discharges (at Hervy station) were occurred in the mid-1990s. Regarding the discharges of Lighvan station (upstream of basin) the null hypothesis of abrupt change point were rejected. Therefore, along with the effects of climatic factors the effectiveness of the human factors on reducing the runoff in the basin outlet at Hervy station was confirmed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Change point
  • Hydro-climatological variables
  • Lighvanchai
  • Pettitt
  • Senʼs estimator
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Received 13 July 2010, Revised 20 July 2011, Accepted 18 September 2011, Available online 29 September 2011
This manuscript was handled by Konstantine P. Georgakakos, Editor-in-Chief, with the assistance of Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Associate Editor
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