تحلیل مشخصه‌های خشکسالی‌های تبریز (2015-1951)

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تبریز

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

در این مطالعه، جهت بررسی خشکسالی­های تبریز، از آمار بارش­های ماهانه (2015-1951) استفاده شد. سه مشخصه خشکسالی، شامل دوره تداوم، شدت و بزرگی خشکسالی از مشاهدات تخمین زده شدند. مناسب­ترین توزیع آماری بر هر کدام از مشخصه­های خشکسالی برازش داده شد. آنگاه 500 سری مصنوعی با طول مشابه با مشاهدات برای هر مشخصه تولید شد. دو حد­آستانه­ای، شامل میانگین بارش سالانه ( ) و میانگین منهای انحراف­معیار بارش سالانه ( )، برای تحلیل در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج حد­آستانه اول نشان داد که برای سری مشاهدات، بیشینه مقدار مشخصه­های Ld، Sd و Md به­ترتیب، برابر 7 سال، 500 میلی­متر و 71 میلی­متر در سال بود. توزیع­های پوواسون، پیرسون نوع 5 و ویکبای به­ترتیب، برای برازش مشخصه­های Ld، Sd و Md مناسب تشخیص داده شدند. چندک 90 درصد برای مشخصه­های Ld، Sd و Md به­ترتیب 5 سال، 443 میلی­متر و 103 میلی­متر در سال به­دست آمد. بزرگی خشکسالی، در دوره­های خشکی روی داده در تبریز حداقل 14 و بیشینه 71 میلی­متر در سال بود. نتایج حد­آستانه دوم نشان داد که برای سری مشاهدات، بیشینه مقدار مشخصه­های Ld، Sd و Md به­ترتیب معادل 2 سال، 76 میلی­متر و 38 میلی­متر در سال بود. هم­چنین توزیع­های یکنواخت، بور و مقادیر کرانه­ای به­ترتیب برای Ld، Sd و Md مناسب بود. چندک90 درصد برای Ld، Sd و Md به­ترتیب 2 سال، 51 میلی­متر و 38 میلی­متر در سال به­دست آمد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Drought Characteristics of Tabriz (1951-2015)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Y Dinpashoh 1
  • S Shafaei 2
1 Associate Professor of Water Resource Engineering, University of Tabriz, Iran
2 M.Sc. Student of Water Resource Engineering, University of Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study, for investigation of Tabriz droughts, monthly precipitation data (1951-2015) were used. Three drought characteristics, including drought duration (Ld), severity (Sd) and magnitude (Md) were extracted from observations. Data of every characteristic fitted with the most suitable statistical distribution. Then five hundred artificial series with the same length of the observed precipitation were generated for each of the characteristics. Two thresholds were considered for drought analysis, including average of annual precipitation and average of annual precipitation minus its standard deviation. The results of first threshold showed that the maximum of Ld, Sd and Md were 7 years, 500 mm and 71 mm/yr, respectively. Poisson, Pearson type 5 and Wakeby distributions were recognized as the most suitable fitted distributions for to the Ld, Sd and Md, respectively. Quantile 90% for Ld, Sd and Md were obtained as 5 years, 443 mm, 103 mm per year, respectively. The maximum and minimum of Ld in Tabriz were between 14 and 71 mm/yr. The second threshold results were showed that the maximum for Ld, Sd and Md were 2 years, 76 mm and 38 mm/yr, respectively. Uniform, Burr, and Generalized Extreme value distributions were recognized as the suitable distributions, for duration, severity and drought magnitudes, respectively. In this case, quintile 90% for drought duration, severity, magnitudes were obtained as 2 years, 51 mm and 38 mm/yr, respectively.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought characteristics
  • Drought duration
  • Drought magnitude
  • Drought severity
  • Tabriz

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دانش آب و خاک
دوره 28، شماره 3
مهر 1397
صفحه 117-130

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