پیش‌بینی عدم‌قطعیت تغییرات فصلی بارندگی محدوده قم-کهک با استفاده از مدل‌های مختلف اقلیمی و مدل توسعه‌یافته هیبرید

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی ارشد مهندسی عمران دانشکده فنی و مهندسی دانشگاه قم

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران

چکیده

در این تحقیق اثر تغییر اقلیم بر بارندگی با استفاده از پنج مدل اقلیمی AOGCM (HadCM3، CCSR-NIES، CSIRO-MK2، CGCM2 و GFDL R30) تحت سناریوهای انتشار A2 و B2 و مدل توسعه‌یافته هیبرید حاصل از این مدل‌ها براساس رویکرد بیزی، به‌منظور لحاظ کردن عدم‌قطعیت‌ها در آبخوان قم-کهک بررسی گردید. داده‌ها برای دوره‌های فعلی (2017-2001) و آتی (2069-2054) ریزمقیاس شدند. سپس با استفاده از معیارهای کارآیی این نتیجه به‌دست آمد که HadCM3 و CCSR-NIES نسبت به سایر مدل‌ها عملکرد بهتری دارند. با محاسبه سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم و لحاظ کردن عدم‌قطعیت‌ها، تغییرات فصلی بارش آتی با بارش مشاهداتی مقایسه شدند. روند تغییرات فصلی بارش محاسباتی با HadCM3 و CCSR-NIESو مدل توسعه‌یافته هیبرید تحت A2، در بهار و تابستان، منفی خواهد بود. بیش‌ترین کاهش بارندگی به میزان 14/45- درصد نسبت به دوره مشاهداتی بوده که مربوط بهHadCM3 در فصل بهار بود. هم‌چنین نتایج حاصل از پیش‌بینی مدل‌ها تحت B2 نشان می‌دهد که روند تغییرات بارش در زمستان برای بیش‌تر مدل‌ها به‌صورت جزئی مثبت خواهد بود و در بهار و تابستان این روند کاهشی است. بیش‌ترین کاهش بارندگی تحت B2 مربوط به CCSR-NIES در تابستان (61/22- درصد نسبت به مشاهداتی). مدل هیبرید که ترکیبی از مدل‌های مختلف اقلیمی است، تحت A2روند تغییرات بارش تمام فصول را منفی پیش‌بینی کرده و بیش‌ترین کاهش بارش در این مدل مربوط به تابستان به میزان 74/29- درصد نسبت به دوره مشاهداتی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Uncertainty Prediction of Seasonal Variations of Rainfall in the Qom-Kahak Using Different Climate Models and Hybrid Developed Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sepideh Jalili 1
  • Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh 2
1 M.Sc. Student of Department of Civil Engineering, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this research, the effect of climate change on rainfall is investigated using five AOGCM climatic models (HadCM3, CCSR-NIES, CSIRO-MK2, CGCM2 and GFDL R30) under emission scenarios A2 and B2 and Hybrid developed model resulting from these models based on Bayesian approach, in order to account for the uncertainties in the Qom-Kahak aquifer. Data were downscaled for current (2001-2017) and future (2054-2069) periods. Then, it is found that the HadCM3 and CCSR-NIES compared to other models have better performance using criteria of efficiency. By calculating climate change scenarios and taking into account uncertainties, seasonal variations of future rainfall were compared with observed rainfall. The trend of seasonal variations of rainfall simulated by HadCM3 and CCSR-NIES and Hybrid developed model will be negative under the A2 in the spring and summer. The highest decrease in rainfall was by -45.14% relative to the observed period, which was related to the HadCM3 in spring. Also, the results of prediction of models under the B2 indicate that the trend of rainfall changes in winter will be partly positive for most models and this trend is decreasing in the spring and summer. The highest decrease of rainfall under the B2 is relative to CCSR-NIES in summer (-22.61% compared to observed period). The hybrid model, which is a combination of different climatic models, predicts the negative trend for the rainfall changes of all seasons under the A2, and the highest rainfall reduction in this model is related to summer by -29.44% compared to the observed period.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • AOGCM
  • Bayesian Approach
  • Hybrid developed model
  • Seasonal variations of rainfall
  • uncertainty
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