بررسی ر وند دوره‌های خشکی سالانه با استفاده از شاخص های AMDSL ، ANDSPS و SPI

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دانشگاه کاشان

2 هیات علمی

3 دانشگاه ارومیه

چکیده

< p>چکیده
شناخت چگونگی تغییرات نزولات جوی در مدیریت صحیح منابع آب اهمیت بسزایی دارد. در این تحقیق به منظور تحلیل وضعیت بارندگی و دوره‌های خشک سالانه، روند تغییرات شاخص SPI و نیز دو شاخص حداکثر طول دوره خشک سالانه (AMDSL) و تعداد دوره‌های خشک سالانه (ANDSPs) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در این راستا آمار روزانه بارندگی پنج ایستگاه‌ سینوپتیک شمال‌غرب کشور( ارومیه، تبریز، اردبیل، خوی و مراغه) که دارای آمار 30 ساله (2010-1981) می‌باشند مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. پس از بررسی همگنی و نرمال بودن داده‌ها، وجود خودهمبستگی معنی‌دار در هرکدام از سری‌ها مورد آزمون قرار گرفت و در صورت معنی‌دار بودن حذف گردید. اعمال آزمون من- کندال بر هریک از سری‌های مورد استفاده، نشان داد هر سه شاخص در اغلب ایستگاه‌ها دارای روند کاهشی هستند. روند نزولی دو شاخص AMDSL و ANDSPs بیانگر بهبود وضعیت اقلیمی منطقه بوده ولی سیر کاهشی شاخص SPI حاکی از کاهش حجم بارندگی می‌باشد. در نتیجه می‌توان گفت علی‌رغم کاهش میزان بارش در منطقه، پراکندگی آن در طول سال بهبود پیدا کرده است. روند کاهشی دو شاخص SPI و ANDSP در ایستگاه مراغه معنی‌دار تشخیص داده شد که آماره من- کندال (Zm) آنها در سطح 05/0 به ترتیب 622/3- و 408/2- می‌باشد. به‌منظور شناسایی نقاط آغاز روند از تکنیک من- کندال دنباله‌ای استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان‌دهنده وقوع جهش‌های معنی‌دار در ایستگاه مراغه می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Trend Analysis of Annual Dry Periods Using SPI and AMDSL and ANDSPs Indices

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sahar Babaei hessar 1
  • Reza Ghazavi 2
  • Maryam Hossein khah 3
1 student of kashan university
2 Associate Professor
3 Urmia university
چکیده [English]

< p >Abstract
Study of the trend and change of precipitation is very important in the proper management of water resources. In this research, in order to analyze the changes in precipitation and annual dry spell period, the trends of SPI and two Annual Maximum Dry Spell length and Annual Number of Dry Spell Periods indices are studied. For this purpose, daily precipitation data in five synoptic station of northwest of Iran (Urmia, Tabriz, Ardebile, Khoy and Maragheh) which has a 30-year data (2010-1981), are used. After examining the homogeneity and normality of the data, significant autocorrelation in each series were tested According to Mann-Kendall test, all three indices have a decreasing trend in most stations. Decreasing trend in two AMDSL and ANDSPs indices reflects the improving climatic condition and decreasing trend of SPI index indicates reduction of precipitation. So we can conclude that despite of the reduction in precipitation in the region, rainfall distribution has improved over the years. Decreasing trend of two SPI, and ANDSP indices is significant in Maragheh and Mann-Kendall (p < 0.05). Test criteria (Zm) for SPI, and ANDSP indices are -3.622 and -2.408 respectively. In order to identify the start points of trends of series, sequential Mann-Kendall techniques have been used. The results indicate the occurrence of significant mutations in Maragheh station.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • AMDSL
  • ANDSP
  • Mann-Kendall Test
  • SPI
  • Trend Analysis

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دانش آب و خاک
دوره 29، شماره 4
دی 1398
صفحه 121-133

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