بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر رفتار هیدرولوژیکی حوضه آبخیز ارازکوسه براساس نمایه‌های رواناب

نویسندگان

1 مرتع و آبخیزداری- دانشگاه گنبد کاووس- ایران

2 مرتع و آبخیزداری- دانشگاه گنبد

3 استادیار دانشگاه گنبد کاووس

چکیده

در این پژوهش اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر رواناب حوضه آبخیز اراز کوسه با مدل HBV و نمایه‌های رواناب بررسی شده است. بدین منظور، با در نظر گرفتن پارامترهای اقلیمی با استفاده از داده‌های مشاهداتی در ایستگاه ارازکوسه در دوره پایه و سه سناریوی اقلیمی آینده RCP2.6، RCP4.5 وRCP8.5 برای دوره آینده اول (2051-2031) و دوره آینده دوم (2071-2051) در نظر گرفته شد. واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی مدل بارش-روانابHBV از داده‌های روزانه بارش، دما و تبخیر تعرق در دوره زمانی 1999-1986و 2009-2006، به کمک الگوریتم DDS انجام گرفت. مقادیر تبخیر و تعرق در دوره آتی با استفاده از مدل ماشین بردار پشتیبان شبیه‌سازی شد. با توجه به مقایسه رواناب دوره پایه و دو دوره آتی‌ با استفاده از نمایه‌های رواناب مبتنی بر منحنی تداوم جریان، در دوره اول و دوم آتی در بیشتر ماه‌های سال روند کاهشی رواناب در سطح حوضه ‌آبخیز ارازکوسه انتظار می‌رود. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که مقادیر دبی‌های اوج و کم‌آبی دوره‌های آتی نسبت به دوره پایه به ترتیب تا %60 و تا %25 کاهش خواهد یافت. مقادیر دبی‌های متوسط آتی نسبت به پایه به غیر از کاهش جزیی در سناریوی RCP8.5 در دو سناریوی دیگر در دو دوره آتی تا %25 افزایش خواهد یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Behavior of Catchments Based on Signature Indices in the Arazkoose Watershed.

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamed Rouhani 1
  • Abolhassan Fathabadi 2
  • Marjan Bahlekeh 2
  • Seyed Morteza Seyedian 3
1 Range and Watershed Management Department- Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources- Gonbad kavous University
2 Range and watershed Management, Gonbad University
3 Gonbad University
چکیده [English]

In this study we implemented the HBV hydrological model and runoff indices to examine the impacts of climate change on runoff in the ArazKoose watershed. Therefore, climate factors using observed historical data from the Arazkooseh station and three different types of representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.5, 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for first future epoch (2031-2051) and second future epoch (2051-2071) were considered. The DDS optimization technique was used to fit to real data by HBV model with input data are precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and temperature in daily scale. For testing the applicability of the model in gauged basin, the model was calibrated for a period of 1986–1999 and validated for a period of 2006–2009. The calibrated and validated SVM models were used to project the evapotranspiration in two future epochs. Future runoff simulations compared to the base period with respect to hydrological indices of flow duration curves resulted in decreases in monthly runoff of ArazKoose watershed. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high flow by 60% and low flow by 25% and increase means discharge in two out of three scenarios by 25% can be expected in the future

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Arazkoose
  • Climate change
  • DDS algorithm
  • Precipitation-runoff model
  • Runoff indices
Abbaspour KC, Faramarzi M, Ghasemi SS and Yang H, 2009. Assessing the impact of climate change on water rresources in Iran. Water Resources Research 45: 1-16.
Ashiq M, Zhao C, Ni J and Akhtar M, 2010. GIS-Based high-resolution spatial interpolation of precipitation in mountain-plain areas of Upper Pakistan for regional climate change impact studies. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 99 (3): 239-253.
Ashofteh P and Massah Bouani AR, 2010. Impact of climate change on maximum discharges: Case Study of Aidoghmoush Basin, East Azerbaijan. Journal of Water and Soil Science 14 (53): 28-38. (In Persian)
Baofeng G, Gunn SR, Damper RI, and Nelson JDB, 2008. Customizing Kernel functions for SVM-Based hyperspectral image classification. IEEE Transactions on Image Processing 17: 4: 622-629.
Bergstrom S, 1995. The HBV model, Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, edited by: Singh, V, Water Resources Publications 443–476.
Chen ST and Yu PS, 2007. Real-time probabilistic forecasting of flood stages. Journal of Hydrology 340: 63-77.
Jung W and Chang H, 2012. Climate change impacts on spatial patterns in drought risk in the Willamet the River Basin. Oregon. USA. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 108: 355– 371.
Karimi Sh, 2014. Assessment of the impact of climate change on hydrological drought in ZayandehRood. Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage 2 (8): 366-376. (In Persian)
Khoshravesh M and Baoj-Rezaee Z. 2016. The Effect of Climate Change on Flood Frequency of Kelardasht Basin using K-nn and HadCM3 Model. Water and Soil Science- University of Tabriz 26 (3): 211-221. (In Persian)
Meenu R, Rehana S and Mujumdar PP, 2012. Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga– Bhadra river basin, India with HEC-HMS and SDSM. Hydrological Processes 27 (11):1572-1589.
Mu T, and Nandi AK, 2007. Breast cancer detection from FNA using SVM with different parameter tuning systems and SOM-RBF classifier. Journal of the Franklin Institute 344 (3-4): 285– 311.
Pourmohamadi S, Dastorani MT, Godarzi M, Mesah Bavani A, Jafari H and Rahimiyan MH, 2017. Effects of climate change on river runoff and provide solutions to adaptations effects (Case Study: Basin Tuyserkan Hamedan). Journal of Watershed Management Science 11 (37):1-12. (In Persian)
Rosenberg NJ, Brown RA, Izaurralde RC and Thomson AM, 2003. Integrated assessment of Hadley Centre (HadCM2) climate change projections on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States: I. Climate change scenarios and impacts on irrigation water supply simulated with the HUMUS model. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 117:73-96.
Rezaei M, Nahtni M, Moghafddamnia AR, Abkar A and Rezaei M, 2016. Long-term precipitation prediction using statistical downscaling model. Water and Soil Science- University of Tabriz 26 (2-1): 115-127. (In Persian)
Rouhani H and Jafarzadeh MS, 2017. Assessing the climate change impact on hydrological response in the Gorganrood river basin, Iran. Journal of Water and Climate Change DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2017.207
Sanikhani H, Dinpashoh Y, Pouryosef S, Gavidel S and Solati B, 2014. The Impacts of climate change on runoff in watersheds (Case Study: Ajichay watershed in East Azerbaijan Province, Iran. Journal of Water and Soil 27 (6): 1225-1234. (In Persian)
Shafii M and Tolson BA, 2015. Optimizing hydrological consistency by incorporating hydrological signatures into model calibration objectives. Water Resource Research 51 (5): 3796-3814.
Shrestha B, Babel MS, Maskey S, van Griensven A, Uhlenbrook S, Green A and Akkharath I, 2013. Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR. Hydrology Earth System Science 17: 1-21.
Siebert J and Vis MJP, 2012. Teaching hydrological modeling with a user-friendly catchment runoff-model software package. Earth System Science 16: 3315-3325.
Teutschbein C, Grabs T, Karlsen RH, Laudon H and Bishop K, 2015. Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region. Water Resource Research 51: 9425–9446.
Tolson BA, Shoemaker CA, 2007. Dynamically dimensioned search algorithm for computationally efficient watershed model calibration. Water Resource Research 43 (1): W01413. 
Vaze J and Teng J, 2011. Future climate and runoff projections across New South Wales, Australia: results and practical applications. Hydrological Processes 25 (1): 18-35.
Wilby RL and Dawson CW, 2013. The statistical down scaling model: Insights from one decade of application. International Journal of Climatology 33: 1707–1719.
Wu Y, Liu S and Abdul-Aziz O, 2012. Hydrological effects of the increased CO2 and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin using a modified SWAT. Climatic Change 110 (3-4): 977-1003.
Yadav M, Wagener T and Gupta H, 2007. Regionalization of constraints on expected watershed response behavior for improved predictions in ungauged basins. Advances in Water Resources 30 (8): 1756–1774.
Yilmaz KK, Gupta HV and Wagener T, 2008. A process-based diagnostic approach to model evaluation: Application to the NWS distributed hydrologic model. Water Resource Research 44 (9): W09417.
Zahibion B, Godarzi M and Mesah Bavani A, 2010. Application of SWAT model in runoff prediction in future under climate change. Journal of Climate Research 1 (3-4): 43-58. (In Persian)