اثر همبستگی متقابل متغیرهای شاخص خشکسالی SPEI در تحلیل بلند مدت خشکسالی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه ارومیه

2 استاد گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه ارومیه

3 دانش آموخته دکتری مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه ارومیه

چکیده

در این مطالعه بطور نوآورانه یک ارزیابی جامعی از تأثیر ضریب همبستگی متقابل دو متغیر بارندگی و تبخیر- تعرق بر عملکرد شاخص خشکسالی SPEI در پیش‏بینی رفتار بلند مدت خصوصیات خشکسالی کشاورزی بر پایه داده‏های 39 ایستگاه سینوپتیک واقع در شرایط اقلیمی و ارتفاع مختلف در سرتاسر ایران انجام پذیرفته و عملکرد آن با شاخص SPI مقایسه گردیده است. بدین منظور سری داده‏های مصنوعی بارندگی و تبخیر- تعرق (به تعداد 10000 جفت) با استفاده از مدل استوکاستیک چندگانه اتورگرسیو با تأخیر یک برای دامنه وسیع از ضریب همبستگی متقابل دو متغیر فوق تولید شد و سپس برای پایش و تعیین خصوصیات خشکسالی استفاده گردید. نتایج این مطالعه بیانگر رفتار نظام‏مند و وابسته خصوصیات مختلف خشکسالی با همبستگی متقابل دو متغیر بارندگی و تبخیر- تعرق بود. بطوریکه، عملکرد دو شاخص خشکسالی SPEI و SPI با افزایش همبستگی متقابل دو متغیر (⇒|R|) بطور غیرخطی یا توانی نزدیک به هم بوده (ضریب همبستگی R=0.85) و برای همبستگی متقابل برابر صفر حداکثر اختلاف مابین خصوصیات خشکسالی برای دو شاخص حاصل شد. نهایتاً نتایج این مطالعه به‎عنوان یک راهنمای جامع در استنباط دقیق و واقعی از رخدادها و خصوصیات خشکسالی بازای شاخص SPEI بوده و می‎تواند کمک مؤثری در تفسیر نتایج خشکسالی با شاخص SPEI داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Cross-Correlation between SPEI Variables in Long-Term Drought Analysis

نویسندگان [English]

  • negar rasouli majd 1
  • Majid Montaseri 2
  • Babak Amirataee 3
1 Ph.D. candidate, Department of Water Engineering, Urmia University, Iran
2 Department of Water Engineering, Urmia University, Iran
3 Ph.D. in Water Resources Engineering, Department of Water Engineering, Urmia University, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study, a comprehensive evaluation of the effect of cross-correlation coefficient between precipitation and evapotranspiration on the performance of SPEI in forecasting the long-term behavior of agricultural drought characteristics in 39 synoptic stations located in different climates and altitudes throughout Iran has been performed, and its performance has been compared with SPI. For this purpose, stochastic precipitation and evapotranspiration time series (10,000 pairs) were generated using the Lag-one Autoregressive Multiple-Site Model (Multi-AR(1)) for a wide range of correlation coefficients of the above two variables and then used to monitor and determine different drought characteristics. The results of this study showed the systematic and dependent behavior of different characteristics of drought with cross-correlation between precipitation and evapotranspiration. So that, the performance of the two SPEI and SPI indices was nonlinearly close to each other (R=0.85) by increasing the cross-correlation between the two variables (|R|⇒1), and for cross-correlation of zero, the maximum difference between the drought characteristics was obtained for the two indices. Finally, the results of this study have been used as a comprehensive guide in the accurate and realistic inference of drought events and characteristics and can be an effective aid in interpreting drought outcomes with the SPEI index.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cross-correlation
  • Data generation models
  • Drought characteristics
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • SPI
  • SPEI
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