شبیه‌سازی جریان در حوضه‌های فاقدآمار با استفاده از روش‌های منطقه‌بندی در حوضه هامون-جازموریان

نویسندگان

1 شاغل در بخش خصوصی-مهندسین مشاور

2 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

3 استاد دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

4 دانشگاه تهران

5 استاد گروه هیدرولوژی حوزه آبخیز، مرکز تحقیقات علوم محیط زیست هِلمهولتس، آلمان

چکیده

در این مطالعه، به منظور شبیه‌سازی سری‌های زمانی جریان در حوضه‌های فاقد آمار، پارامترهای مدل‌های مفهومی بارش رواناب HBV و IHACRES با استفاده از سه روش اصلی منطقه‌بندی شامل: تشابه فیزیکی (PS)، مجاورت مکانی (SP)، رگرسیون چندمتغیره (MR) و یک روش ترکیبی (IDW-PS)، از حوضه دارای آمار به حوضه فاقدآمار انتقال داده شدند. این مطالعه با استفاده از داده‌های روزانه شامل بارش، دما و تبخیر مربوط به 21 زیرحوضه واقع در حوضه رودخانه‌ای هامون-جازموریان واقع در جنوب‌شرق ایران در یک دوره چهارده ساله (1383 تا 1397) انجام شد. روش‌های منطقه‌بندی تحت سه حالت: زمانی (انتقال بین دوره‌های زمانی مختلف)، مکانی (انتقال بین دوره‌های واسنجی یکسان اما حوضه‌های مختلف) و مکانی-زمانی (انتقال بین دوره‌ها و حوضه‌های مختلف) مطالعه شدند. نتایج نشان داد که: (1) مدل پیچیده‌تر HBV عملکرد بهتری نسبت به مدل ساده‌تر IHACRES دارد، بطوریکه میانگین آماره NSE در دوره‌های مختلف در مدل HBV برای واسنجی، اعتبارسنجی و مناسب‌ترین روش منطقه‌بندی (تشابه فیزیکی) به ترتیب برابر با 625/0، 57/0 و 5/0 بود، در حالیکه این مقادیر برای مدل IHACRES برابر با 57/0، 51/0 و 46/0 بدست آمد، (2) روش رگرسیون چندمتغیره با میانگین ضرایب NSE برابر با 2/0 و 24/0 به ترتیب برای مدل‌های HBV و IHACRES بدترین نتایج منطقه‌بندی را نشان داد و (3) در مدل HBV پارامترهای مربوط به روال برف و رواناب به ترتیب بیشترین و کمترین عدم‌قطعیت را داشتند، در حالیکه در مدل IHACRES بیشترین و کمترین عدم‌قطعیت‌ها به ترتیب مربوط به پارامترهای آستانه تنش گیاهی (vs) و سهم جریان آهسته در جریان کل (f) بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Streamflow Simulation in Ungauged Catchments Using the Regionalization Methods in Hamoun-Jazmourian River Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • afshin jahanshahi 1
  • Kaka Shahedi 2
  • Karim Solaimani 3
  • Alireza Moghaddam Nia 4
  • Ralf Merz 5
2 Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Iran
3 Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Iran
4 Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
5 Department of Catchment Hydrology, Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research, Germany
چکیده [English]

In this study, to simulate streamflow time series in ungauged catchments, the parameters of two HBV and IHACRES hydrological models were transfer from gauged (donor) to ungauged catchments using three main regionalization methods including Physical Similarity (PS), Multiple Regression (MR), Spatial Proximity (SP) and an integrated method (IDW-PS). This study was carried out using daily data including precipitation, temperature and evaporation related to at 21 sub-catchments in Hamoun-Jazmourian River Basin in southeast Iran over a 14-year period (2004-2016). Regionalization methods were studied under three modes: temporal (transferring across different periods), spatial (transferring between same calibration periods but different sites) and spatiotemporal (transferring across both different periods and sites). The results indicated that: (1) the more complex HBV model showed better results than the simple model, so that the average NSE coefficients in two different periods in the HBV model were 0.625, 0.57 and 0.5 for calibration, validation and the most appropriate regionalization method (physical similarity) respectively, while these values for IHACRES model were 0.57, 0.51 and 0.46, (2) multiple regression method with mean NSE coefficients equal to 0.2 and 0.24 for HBV and IHACRES models showed the worst regionalization results and (3) the HBV parameters related to snow and runoff components, were associated with highest and lowest uncertainties respectively, while for the IHACRES, the most and least robustness parameters were plant stress threshold factor, f and the proportion of slow flow to total flow, vs respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Parameter transfer
  • Ungauged catchments
  • Rainfall-runoff model
  • Conceptual model
  • Streamflow regionalization

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دانش آب و خاک
دوره 32، شماره 2
تیر 1401
صفحه 159-177

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