Evaluation of Climate Change Effect on Soil Moisture of Farms by SWAP and AOGCM Models

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Abstract

The estimation of soil moisture plays an essential role in the hydrologic modeling, drought prediction and management, climate change analysis, and support of agricultural decision making. Therefore, by use of meteorological parameters variations in the future period, effect of climate change on soil moisture status were investigated by use of three models of AOGCM and emission scenarios namely B1, A2 and A1B. So, firstly, the values of temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed and radiation were determined by these three scenarios and AOGCM models and secondly downscaled by the LARS-WG model and change factor method. Results of the present study showed that the values of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and rainfall would increase in average by mean of 8%, 7%, 1% and 5% respectively, in the future period (2020-2039) in comparison with the baseline (1992-2011) and also temperature and relative humidity would increase in average by 30% and 19% in the future period (2080-2099) as compared with the baseline. Also, soil moisture at the depths of 30 and 60 cm were determined by use of meteorological parameters, soil and water data in SWAP model for future and base line periods. The results showed that the soil moisture in the future period of 2020 would increase as compared with the baseline, but in the future period of 2090 would decrease. Furthermore, the 5th and 21th weeks of the wheat growing season were determined as drought stress warning weeks for the Faroub and Soleimani farms, respectively.

Keywords

Main Subjects


آشفته پ­س، 1391. تاثیر تغییراقلیم بر نیاز آبی محصولات با استفاده از مدل HadCM3 در شبکه آبیاری آیدوغموش. مجله آبیاری و زهکشی ایران، جلد6، شماره3، صفحه­های 142 تا 151.
خان­محمدی ف، همایی م و نوروزی ع­ا، 1393. برآورد رطوبت خاک به­کمک شاخص­های پوشش گیاهی و دمای سطحی خاک و شاخص نرمال شده رطوبت با استفاده از تصاویر MODIS. مجله حفاظت منابع آب و خاک، جلد4، شماره2، صفحه­های 37 تا 45.
خوشحال دستجردی ج، مصطفوی دارانی س­م و قطره سامانی م، 1389. اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر میزان رطوبت خاک در کشت گندم دیم (مطالعه موردی: داران- استان اصفهان). صفحه­های 222 تا 234، اولین کنفرانس بین­المللی مدل­سازی گیاه، آب، خاک و هوا. مرکز بین­المللی علوم و تکنولوژی پیشرفته و علوم محیطی، 24-23 آبان ماه. دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان.
دلقندی م، 1391. ارزیابی اثرات ریسک تغییراقلیم بر عملکرد گندم و ارائه راهکارهای سازگاری با آن (مطالعه موردی: جنوب دشت خوزستان). رساله دکتری تخصصی آبیاری وزهکشی، دانشکده مهندسی علوم آب، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز.
Baghdadi N, Aubert M, Cerdan O, Franchisteguy L, Viel C, Martin E, Zribi M and Desprats JF, 2007. Operational mapping of soil moisture using synthetic aperture radar data: application to the Touch Basin (France). Sensors 7: 2458-2483.
Chiew  FHS, Whetton PH, McMahon TA and Pittock AB, 1995. Simulation of the impacts of climate change on runoff and soil moisture in Australian catchments.  Journal of Hydrology 167: 121–147.
Chung SO., Rodriguez-Diaz JA, Weatherhead EK and Knox JW, 2011. Climate change impacts on water for irrigation paddy rice in south Korea. Irrigation and Drainage 60: 263–273.
Destouni G and Verrot L, 2014. Screening long-term variability and change of soil moisture in a changing climate. Journal of Hydrology 516: 131–139.
IPCC-TGICA, 2007: General Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment. Version 2. Prepared by T.R. Carter on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Assessment, 66 pp.
Lunt LA, Hubbard SS and Rubin Y, 2005. Soil moisture content estimation using groundpenetrating radar reflection data. Journal of Hydrology 307: 254-269.
Mekonnen DF, 2009. Satellite Remote Sensing for Soil Moisture Estimation: Gumara Catchment, Ethiopia. International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation, Enschede.
Semenov MA, 2008. Extreme impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 88: 37–38.
Semenov MA and Stratonovitch P, 2010. Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Climate Research 41: 1-14.
Shahid S, 2011. Impact of climate change on irrigation water demand of dry season Boro rice in northwest Bangladesh. Climatic Change 105: 433–453.
Van Dam  JC, Huygen J, Wesseling JG, Feddes RA, Kabat P, Van Waslum PEV, Groenendjik P and Van Diepen CA, 1997. Theory of SWAP version 2.0: simulation of water flow and plant growth in the soil–water–atmosphere–plant environment, Wageningen Agricultural University and DLO Winand Staring Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Wang L and Qu J, 2009. Satellite remote sensing applications for surface soil moisture monitoring. Earth Science, 3: 237-247.
Wilby RL, and Harris I, 2006. A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change ipmacts: low flow scenarios for the River Thame,. UK. Water Resources Research 42(2): (W02419)