The Effect of Climate Change on Flood Frequency of Kelardasht Basin using K-nn and HadCM3 Model

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Abstract

Global climate change may have serious impacts on the frequency, magnitude and duration of hydrological extremes. Variation in the hydrologic ultimate limits can have impact on designing of hydraulic structures in future, development of flood-plain, and management of water resources. This research, investigated the potential impact of climate change using weather generator K-nn and HadcM3 models under A2 scenario and also the rainfall-runoff HEC-HMS model. First, downscaling of GCM data using HadCM3 model under scenario A2 in stochastic model called K-nn was carried out. Then, land use map and soil group map were prepared and required parameters were determined for the HEC-HMS model. Thereafter, and the model was calibrated and validated using 4 flood events. The results of RMSE, R and t-Student test indicated that simulated peak flow had significant correlation with observed peak flow. Results of storms analysis of 2 hours with 100- year return period showed that the base period (1980-2011) decreased by 32 percent as compared to future period (2040-2069). After determination of intensity-duration-frequency curve, distribution of precipitation values for Nahalestan station imported to the rainfall-runoff model and peak flow with different return periods 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years were calculated for sub-basins for the base and future periods. Results of the frequency analysis showed that peak flow in period 2040-2069 with 25 years return period would decrease by 21 percent as compared to the base period. 

Keywords

References

بنی­هاشمی م، 1385. مدل­سازی هیدرولوژیکی حوضه آبخیز نکارود– زیرحوضه گلورد با استفاده از داده­های ماهواره­ای. طرح تحقیقات کاربردی. شرکت آب منطقه­ای مازندران. 154 صفحه.
تلوری ع، 1375. مدل­های هیدرولوژی به زبان ساده. انتشارات موسسه تحقیقات جنگل­ها و مراتع کشور، چاپ دوم، 120 صفحه.
دوستی م، حبیب­نژاد روشن م، شاهدی ک و میریعقوب­زاده م­ح. 1392. بررسی شاخص­های اقلیمی حوضه آبخیز تمر، استان گلستان در شرایط تغییر اقلیم با کاربرد مدلLARS-WG . مجله فیزیک زمین و فضا، جلد 39، شماره 4، صفحه­های 177 تا 189.
ذهبیون ب، گودرزی م­ر و مساح بوانی ع­ر. 1389. کاربرد مدل SWAT در تخمین رواناب حوضه در دوره­های آتی تحت تاثیر تغییر اقلیم. پژوهش­های اقلیم­شناسی، جلد 1، شماره 3، صفحه­های 45 تا 60.
علیزاده، ا، 1389. اصول هیدرولوژی کاربردی. انتشارات دانشگاه امام رضا (ع). چاپ بیست و هشتم، 800 صفحه.
قمقامی م، قهرمان ن و عراقی­نژاد ش، 1390. ارزیابی عملکرد رهیافت توسعه یافته نزدیک­ترین همسایه در شبیه­سازی داده­های هواشناسی روزانه. نشریه تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران، جلد 42، شماره 1، صفحه­های 45 تا 54.
کاظمی­زاد م. 1386. عوامل موثر بر گرمایش گلخانه­ای زمین و نتایج آن. رشد آموزش زمین­شناسی، شماره 49، صفحه­های 22 تا 29.
کریمی و، سلیمان ک، حبیب­نژاد روشن م و شاهدی ک، 1392. مقایسه برخی روش­های تعین الگوی توزیع زمانی بارش جهت برآورد سیلاب­های شهری مطالعه موردی بابلسر. فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی مهندسی آبیاری و آب، سال 4، شماره 13، صفحه­های 102 تا 112.
کمال ع و مساح بوانی  ع­ر، 1391. مقایسه عدم قطعیت مدل­های تغییر اقلیم AOGCM-TAR و AOGCM-AR4 در تاثیر بر رواناب حوضه در دوره آتی. مجله فیزیک زمین و فضا، جلد 38، شماره 3، صفحه­های 175 تا 188.
محمد صالحی پ، رائینی سرجاز م و ضیاء­تبار احمدی م­خ، 1386. شبیه­سازی بارش-رواناب با مدل ریاضی مبتنی بر سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی برای حوضه آبریز امامه. مجله علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، جلد 15، شماره 1، صفحه­های 162-171.
Anonymous, 1998. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability.  Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Anonymous, 2007. The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Chartzoulakis K and Psarras G, 2005. Global change effects on crop photosynthesis and production in Mediterranean: the case study of Greece. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 106: 147-157.
Conway D and Jones PD, 1998. The use of weather types and air flow indices for GCM downscaling. Journal of Hydrology 213(1/4): 348-361.
Cunderlik JM and Simonovic SP, 2005. Hydrological extremes in a southwestern Ontario river basin under future climate conditions. Hydrological Sciences Journal 50(4): 631-654.
Davis J, 1986. Statistics and data analysis in geology, Wiley, NewYork.
Farrokhi A and Abrishamchi A, 2009. Detection of stream flow trends and variability in Karun river, Iran as parts of climate change and climate variability. World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, pp. 1-12.
Flower HJ and Kilsby CG, 2007. Using regional climate model data to simulate historical and future river flows in northwest England. Journal of Climate Change 80: 337-367.
Henderson J, Rodgers C, Jones R, Smith J, Strzepek K and Martinich J, 2015. Economic impacts of climate change on water resources in the coterminous United States. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 20(1): 135-157.
Hirabayashi Y, Kanae S, Emori S, Oki T and Kimoto M, 2008. Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate. Hydrological Sciences Journal 53: 754-772.
Lindström G and Bergström S, 2004. Runoff trends in Sweden: 1807-2002. Hydrol. Sci. J.,Special Section: Detecting Change in Hydrological Data 49(1): 69-83.
Maurer EP. 2007. Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emission scenario. Climatic Change 82: 309-325.
McKerchar AI and Henderson RD, 2003. Shifts in flood and low-flow regimes in New Zealand due to interdecadal climate variations. Hydrological Sciences Journal 48(4): 637-654.
Paturel JE, Ouedraogo M, Servat E, Mahé G, Dezetter A and Boyer JF, 2003. The concept of rainfall and streamflow normals in West and Central Africa in a context of climatic variability. Hydrological Sciences Journal 48(1): 125-137.
Pongrácz R, Bogardi I and Duckstein L, 2003. Climatic forcing of droughts: a Central European example. Hydrological Sciences Journal 48(1): 39-50.
Quintana P, Ribes A, Martin E, Habets F and Boe J, 2010. Comparison of three downscaling methods in simulating the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins. Journal of Hydrology 383: 111-124.
Schnur R and Lettenmaier DP, 1998. A case study of statistical downscaling in Australia using weather classification by recursive partitioning. Journal of Hydrology 212/213(1/4): 362-379.
Steele-Dunne S, Lynch P, McGrath R, Semmler T, Wang S, Hanafin J and Nolan P, 2008. The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland. Journal of Hydrology 356: 28-45.
Vaghefi SA, Mousavi SJ, Abbaspour KC, Srinivasan R and Yang H, 2015. Analyses of the impact of climate change on water resources components, drought and wheat yield in semiarid regions: Karkheh River Basin in Iran. Hydrological Processes 28(4): 2018-2032.
Wilby RL and Harris I, 2006. A frame work for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: low flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resources Research 42(2): 1-10.
Wilks DS, 1999. Interannual variability and extreme value characteristics of several stochastic daily precipitation models. Agriculturaland Forest Meteorology 93: 153-169.
Yates D, Gangopadhyay S, Rajagopalan B and Strzepek K, 2003. A technique for generating regional climate scenarios using a nearest-neighbour algorithm. Water Resources Research 39(7): 1199-1207.
Water and Soil Science
Volume 26, Issue 3 - Serial Number 3
December 2016
Pages 211-221

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics