The Prediction of Groundwater Level in Ghorve Plain Using MODFLOW Model in Different Scenarios of LARS-WG Climate Change

Authors

1 Assist., Prof., Dept. of Geology, Faculty of Science, Urmia University

2 Graduated from the Dept. of Geology, Faculty of Science, Urmia University

3 Prof., Water Engineering Dept., Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University

Abstract

Today climate change is evident as a result of increasing greenhouse gases and its effects in different parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Since groundwater is the most important source to provide water, is essential future to analyzes of the impact of climate change on these resources and the estimate the measure of their nutritional in the future. In this research, the effects of climate change on the groundwater resources of Qorveh plain in the watershed of the Tolawar River have been investigated. For modeling the groundwater level of the study area, the MODFLOW model was used for 216 months of calibration and then validated using 163 months' data. Finally, the predicted precipitation was entered into the MODFLOW model as the feeding parameter and the effects of climate change in the three scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 at the static-water level with aquifer simulation were investigated. Also, with a 10% increase in harvest volume from wells and Expected rainfall prediction from scenario A2, the drop in static-water level has increased dramatically and every year we will have about 117 centimeters decrease in the static-water level. With a 10% reduction in the volume of wells in the coming years and projected rainfall from scenario B1, drop of static-water level has decreased from previous years and the measure of reduction in the static-water level was estimated to be about 33 centimeters annually.

Keywords

References

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Water and Soil Science
Volume 32, Issue 4
December 2022
Pages 61-73

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