Climate Change Impact onWheat Yield and Analysis of the Related Risks:(Case Study: Esfahan Ruddasht Region)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Abstract

Change in atmospheric greenhouse gases Leads to imbalance between different elements of the
earth climate. However, the amount of the gases that will be disposed in to the atmosphere in the
future by human activity is uncertain and may be presented under different scenarios. In this study,
the daily time series of climatic parameters for Ruddasht region (located in Esfahan Province, Iran)
under A2 (857 ppm CO2., 308°C temperature rise) and B1 (538 ppm CO2., 2°C temperature rise)
climate change scenarios were generated for the period 2011-2030 using HADCM3 Global
Circulation Model (GCM) and LARS-WG weather generator. The results showed that, in the region
of study, the amount of mean total yearly precipitation, mean total effective precipitation and mean
daily temperature would increase under climate change scenarios. The effects of climate change on
irrigated wheat yield were analyzed using SWAP model. The analysis of relative and actual yield of
wheat under different climatic scenarios showed that the mean relative yield under scenarios A2 and
B1 would decrease by 1.49 and 2.1 percent and the mean actual yield would decrease by 4.19 and
17.9 percent, respectively. Analyzing related risks of yield decrease demonstrated that the risk of
yield reduction would increase in climate change scenarios. The risk of 500 kg.ha-1 wheat yield
reduction in comparison with base scenario (BS) mean value were estimated 7, 15 and 55 percent
for BS, A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively.

Keywords

Main Subjects


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