Uncertainty Prediction of Seasonal Variations of Rainfall in the Qom-Kahak Using Different Climate Models and Hybrid Developed Model

Authors

1 M.Sc. Student of Department of Civil Engineering, University of Qom, Qom, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Qom, Qom, Iran

Abstract

In this research, the effect of climate change on rainfall is investigated using five AOGCM climatic models (HadCM3, CCSR-NIES, CSIRO-MK2, CGCM2 and GFDL R30) under emission scenarios A2 and B2 and Hybrid developed model resulting from these models based on Bayesian approach, in order to account for the uncertainties in the Qom-Kahak aquifer. Data were downscaled for current (2001-2017) and future (2054-2069) periods. Then, it is found that the HadCM3 and CCSR-NIES compared to other models have better performance using criteria of efficiency. By calculating climate change scenarios and taking into account uncertainties, seasonal variations of future rainfall were compared with observed rainfall. The trend of seasonal variations of rainfall simulated by HadCM3 and CCSR-NIES and Hybrid developed model will be negative under the A2 in the spring and summer. The highest decrease in rainfall was by -45.14% relative to the observed period, which was related to the HadCM3 in spring. Also, the results of prediction of models under the B2 indicate that the trend of rainfall changes in winter will be partly positive for most models and this trend is decreasing in the spring and summer. The highest decrease of rainfall under the B2 is relative to CCSR-NIES in summer (-22.61% compared to observed period). The hybrid model, which is a combination of different climatic models, predicts the negative trend for the rainfall changes of all seasons under the A2, and the highest rainfall reduction in this model is related to summer by -29.44% compared to the observed period.

Keywords

References

Anonymous, 2012. Semi-detailed studies of groundwater in Qom, Qom Regional Water Organization. Pp. 1-123. (In Persian with English abstract).
Anonymous, (2007). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Chang 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, P.18 Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA.
Aristeidis K, Giannis T, Loannis D and Daniela J, 2013. Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece. Journal of Hydrology 479:146-158.
Ashofteh PS, Bozorg-Haddad O and Mariño MA, 2015. Risk analysis of water demand for agricultural crops under climate change. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 20 (4).
Ashofteh PS, 2014. Climate change and Water: Tools and Approaches. Javdan Kherad Publications. Tehran, 1-224. (In Persian with English abstract).
Behlkeh M, Rouhani H., Fathabadi AH and Seyedian SM, 2019. Investigation of climate change impact on hydrological behavior of Arazkoose Watershed based on runoff indices. Water and Soil Science- University of Tabriz 29 (4): 97-108. (In Persian with English abstract).
Davoodi P and Ahmadi H, 2017. Investigation of the effects of climate change on climate parameters (Case study: Lar dam basin). Fourth International Conference on New Technologies in Civil Engineering, Architecture and Urban Planning. 6 October, Salehan University, Tehran. (In Persian with English abstract).
Dinpashoh Y, 2006. Study of reference crop evapotranspiration in I.R. of Iran. Agricultural Water Management 84: 123-129.
Görgüner M, Ishida K, Kavvas ML, Ohara N and Chen ZQ, 2017. Regional hydrologic impact assessment of climate change on reservoir inflows under the CMIP5 climate projections. Pp. 565-571. World Environmental and Water Resource Congress. 21-25 May, Sacramento, California.
Hashemi-Ana SK, Khosravi M, Tavousi T and Nazaripour H, 2017. Validation of AOGCMs capabilities for simulation length of dry spells under the climate change and uncertainty in Iran. Scientific-Research Quarterly Geographical Data (SEPEHR) 26 (103): 43-58. (In Persian with English abstract).
Hsu KCh, Wng ChH, Chen KCh, Chen ChT and Ma KW, 2010. Climate induced hydrological impacts on the groundwater system the Pingtung plain, Taiwan. Hydrology Journal 15 (5): 903-913.
Izadi Z, Nasrollahi AH and Haghighati Borujeni B, 2017. Predicting seasonal changes in rainfall in future periods under different scenarios of climate change (Case study: Shahr-e-Kord). The Second National Conference on Hydrology of Iran. July 21-20, Shahr-e-Kord University, Shahr-e-Kord.
Jahanbakhsh Asl S, Dinpazhooh Y, Alinezhad MH, Valizadeh Kamran Kh and Parhizghar M, 2016. Simulation of snow-melt runoff in Shahrchay using the SRM model. Geography and Environmental Planning 27 (3): 1-14.
Mansouri B, Ahmadzadeh H, Massah Bavani A, Morid S, Dekavar M and Lotfi S, 2015. Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in Zarrinehrud Basin using SWAT model. Journal of Water and Soil 28 (6): 1191-1203. (In Persian with English abstract).
Maroofpour S, Fakheri-Fard A and Shiri J, 2018. Modeling the ground water system response to variation of the consumption and surface discharge. Water and Soil Science- University of Tabriz 28 (4): 83-196. (In Persian with English abstract).
Mehdizadeh S, Meftah Helghi M, Mosaedi A and Seyed-Ghasemi S, 2018. Investigation of the effects of climate change on river flow in Tamar Station-Golestan province The Second National Conference on Meteorology of Iran. 9 May. Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. Mashhad. (In Persian with English abstract).
Modaresi F, Araghinejad Sh, Ebrahimi K and Kholghi M, 2012. Assessment of climate change effects on the annual water yield of rivers: A case study of Gorganroud River, Iran. Journal of Water and Soil 25 (6): 1365-1377. (In Persian with English abstract).
Nkomozepi T and Chung SO, 2014. The effects of climate change on the water resources of the Geumho River Basin, Republic of Korea. Journal of Hydro-Environment Research 8 (4): 358-366.
Rashid Banam A, 1999. Experimental Bayesian estimation for gross data. Master Thesis. Department of Statistics. Tarbiat Modares University. (In Persian with English abstract).
Sadeqi A, Dinpashoh Y and Zarghami M, 2019. Projection and spatial analysis of agroclimatic indices in Ghezel Ozan River Basin during the growing season. Journal of Water and Soil Resources Conservation 9 (1): 139-162. (In Persian with English abstract).
Steele-Dunne S, Lynch P, McGrath R, Semmler T, Wang Sh, Hanafin J and Nolan P, 2008. The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland. Journal of Hydrology 356 (1-32): 28-45.
Traynham L, Palmer R and Polebitski A, 2011. Impacts of future climate conditions and forecasted population growth on water supply systems in the Puget Sound region. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 137 (4): 318-326.
Watts G, Battarbee RW, Bloomfield JP, Crossman J, Daccache A, Durance I, Elliott JA, Garner G, Hannaford J, Hannah DM, Hess T, Jackson, ChR, Kay AL, Kernan M, Knox J, Mackay J, Monteith DT, Ormerod SJ, Rance J, Stuart ME, Wade AJ, Wade SD, Weatherhead PG and Wilby RL, 2015. Climate change and water in the UK-past changes and future prospects. Progress in Physical Geography 39 (1): 6-28.
Yilmaz I and Yüksek AG, 2009. Prediction of the strength and elasticity modulus of gypsum using multiple regression, ANN, ANFIS models and their comparison. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences 46 (4): 803-810.
Yousefdoost A, Ismaili P and Raisi SM, 2016. Comparison of the performance of GFDL CM2.1, HadCM3 and CGCM3 models in estimating the effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Taleghan basin under A2 emission scenario. The Second International Conference on Environment and Natural Resources, 18 February, Kharazmi Higher Institute of Science and Technology, Shiraz. (In Persian with English abstract).
 
Water and Soil Science
Volume 31, Issue 3
September 2021
Pages 87-100

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics