Analysis of Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Behavior of Catchments Based on Signature Indices in the Arazkoose Watershed.

Authors

1 Range and Watershed Management Department- Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources- Gonbad kavous University

2 Range and watershed Management, Gonbad University

3 Range and Watershed Management- Gonbad University

4 Gonbad University

Abstract

In this study we implemented the HBV hydrological model and runoff indices to examine the impacts of climate change on runoff in the ArazKoose watershed. Therefore, climate factors using observed historical data from the Arazkooseh station and three different types of representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.5, 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for first future epoch (2031-2051) and second future epoch (2051-2071) were considered. The DDS optimization technique was used to fit to real data by HBV model with input data are precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and temperature in daily scale. For testing the applicability of the model in gauged basin, the model was calibrated for a period of 1986–1999 and validated for a period of 2006–2009. The calibrated and validated SVM models were used to project the evapotranspiration in two future epochs. Future runoff simulations compared to the base period with respect to hydrological indices of flow duration curves resulted in decreases in monthly runoff of ArazKoose watershed. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high flow by 60% and low flow by 25% and increase means discharge in two out of three scenarios by 25% can be expected in the future

Keywords

References

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Water and Soil Science
Volume 29, Issue 4
February 2020
Pages 97-108

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