تداوم روزهای همراه با موج گرمایی در اقلیم‌های مختلف با استفاده از زنجیره مارکف

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

چکیده

در چند دهه اخیر تغییرات دما روند افزایشی داشته و این تغییرات در مناطقی همچون ایران که در کمربند خشک و نیمه­خشک دنیا واقع شده است، چشم­گیرترمی­باشد. موج­های گرمایی شدید از مهم­ترین بلایای آب و هوایی بوده که هر سال پیامدهای زیست محیطی مخربی را در طبیعت به جای می­گذارند. در این پژوهش، پس از شناسایی موج­های گرمایی، احتمال ساده، احتمال ساکن و احتمال تداوم­های پی­در­پی دو تا پنج روزه محاسبه و مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برای این منظور، دمای بیشینه روزانه 30 ساله 16 ایستگاه با اقلیم­های متفاوت (اقلیم خشک سرد تا مرطوب معتدل) و زنجیره مارکف مرتبه اول استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد، بیشینه مقدار متوسط احتمال ساده روز با موج گرمایی متعلق به ایستگاه بندرعبّاس با مقدار1/6 درصد و کمترین آن مربوط به ایستگاه خرم­آباد با مقدار 2/0 درصد است. همچنین، ایستگاه بندرعباس دارای بیشترین مقدار درصد متوسط احتمال تداوم­های پی­در­پی 2 تا 5 روزه همراه با موج گرما است که مقدار آن به­ترتیب، برابر 91/2، 40/1، 67/0 و 31/0 درصد می­باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Duration of Days with Heat Waves in Different Climates Using Markov Chain

چکیده [English]

The temperature changes have shown increasing trend in recent decades and these changes are much more significant in regions like Iran, which is located in the arid and semi-arid belt of the world. Intensive heat waves are of the most important climatic disasters, which have devastating environmental implications in the nature every year. In this study, the simple probability, stationary probability and consecutive probability of 2-5 days were calculated, after identifying the heat waves. For this purpose, the 30 years data of daily maximum temperature from 16 stations with different climates (cold and dry to moderate humid climates) and were used for application of the first order Markov chain. Results indicated that the maximum and minimum values of the simple probability with of the heat wave days were observed at Bandar- Abbas and Khorram Abad stations with amount 6.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Also, Bandar- Abbas station had the maximum percentage of the average consecutive probability of 2-5 days with the heat wave amounts of 2.91, 1.40, 0.67 and 0.31%, respectively.

 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Consecutive continues
  • First order Markov chain
  • Maximum daily temperature
  • Simple probability
  • Stationary probability
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