Evaluation of Climate Change Effect on Soil Moisture of Farms by SWAP and AOGCM Models

Document Type : Research Paper

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Abstract

The estimation of soil moisture plays an essential role in the hydrologic modeling, drought prediction and management, climate change analysis, and support of agricultural decision making. Therefore, by use of meteorological parameters variations in the future period, effect of climate change on soil moisture status were investigated by use of three models of AOGCM and emission scenarios namely B1, A2 and A1B. So, firstly, the values of temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed and radiation were determined by these three scenarios and AOGCM models and secondly downscaled by the LARS-WG model and change factor method. Results of the present study showed that the values of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and rainfall would increase in average by mean of 8%, 7%, 1% and 5% respectively, in the future period (2020-2039) in comparison with the baseline (1992-2011) and also temperature and relative humidity would increase in average by 30% and 19% in the future period (2080-2099) as compared with the baseline. Also, soil moisture at the depths of 30 and 60 cm were determined by use of meteorological parameters, soil and water data in SWAP model for future and base line periods. The results showed that the soil moisture in the future period of 2020 would increase as compared with the baseline, but in the future period of 2090 would decrease. Furthermore, the 5th and 21th weeks of the wheat growing season were determined as drought stress warning weeks for the Faroub and Soleimani farms, respectively.

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References

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Water and Soil Science
Volume 27, Issue 1
June 2017
Pages 95-106

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