Investigating of the Effect of Land Use Changes on Daily River Discharge Using the HEC-HMS Model (Case study: Ajerloo Watershed, West Azerbaijan Province)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Abstract

Precise estimation of discharge is a key step in planning and optimal management of water resources. One of the effective factors in changing the rivers flow regime is basin-wide land use changes. In this study, the effects of land use changes on Ajerloo river flow regime were investigated using the HEC-HMS hydrological model. To detect the changes of land use in this watershed, we used some satllite images of the MSS Landsat and LISS III (IRS-1C satellite) for the years 1975-2008. After applying various corrections and different analyses and random sampling of land use units, classification for each image was done using maximum likelihood algorithm. For the both series of images (according to Kappa coefficients 0.76 and 0.78 for the MSS and LISS III, respectively) the bands of green and red as well as NDVI index were selected as the best combination band. Then the accuracy of the produced maps was evaluated. The results showed that during 33 years, the area of rangelands had decreased by 37.65 % whereas the areas of agriculture and bare lands had increased by 57.27% and 37.65, respectively. For this purpose, after providing the land use map for the years 1975 and 2008 and combining them with the Hydrological soil groups map in GIS, the HEC-HMS hydrological model was calibrated and validated using the curve number and SCS unit hydrograph of the basin based on rainfall-runoff observations. The results of the model calibration (after optimization the curve number and the lag time basin parameters) showed that the land use changes in the mentioned time period had increased the peak discharge about 29.7 cubic meters per second (86.8%) as well as the runoff volume 18.8 million cubic meters (12.7%).

Keywords


ثقفیان ب، فرازجو ح، سپهری ع، و نجفی­نژاد ع، 1385. بررسی اثر تغییرات کاربری اراضی بر سیل­خیزی حوضه آبریز سد گلستان. مجله تحقیقات منابع آب ایران، سال دوم، شماره 1. صفحه­های 28 تا 18.
سعادتی ح، غلامی ش، شریفی ف، و ایوب­زاده س، ع، 1385. بررسی اثرات تغییر کاربری اراضی در رواناب سطحی مدل شبیه­سازی. مجله منابع طبیعی ایران، جلد 59، شماره 2، صفحه­های 313 تا 301.
ضیایی ح، 1380. اصول مهندسی آبخیزداری، انتشارات آستان قدس رضوی، 542 ص.
فرج­زاده م، و فلاح م، 1387. ارزیابی تاثیر تغییرات کاربری و پوشش اراضی بر رژیم سیلابی رودخانه تجن با استفاده از تکنیک سنجش از دور. مجله پژوهش­های جغرافیایی، شماره 64، صفحه­های104 تا 89.
غفاری گ، قدسی ج، و احمدی ح، 1388. بررسی تأثیر تغییر کاربری اراضی بر پاسخ­های هیدرولوژی حوضه آبخیز (مطالعه موردی؛ حوضه آبخیز زنجان­رود). مجله پژوهش­های حفاظت آب و خاک، جلد شانزدهم، صفحه­های 180 تا 163.
محمدی ک، رازدار ب، و محمد ولی سامانی ج، 1387. بررسی کیفیت آب رود رودخانه پسیخیان با استفاده از مدل CE-QUAL-W2 در مورد پارامترهای نیترات و فسفات و مقایسه نتایج حاصل از شبیه­سازی با نرم­افزار WASP. چهارمین کنگره ملی مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تهران، صفحه­های 8 تا 1.
Anonymous, 2003. Hydrologic Modling SistemHEC-HMS: Technical Reference Manual.USACE (United States Army Corps of Engineers), Washington, DC.
Calder IR, 1993. Hydrologic Effects of Land Use Change. pp.50-62. In: Maidment, DR, (Ed), Handbook of Hydrology, Chapter 13 McGRAW-Hill, New York .
Chen Y, Xu Yand Yin Y, 2009. Impacts of land-use change scenarios on storm-runoff generation in Xitiaxi basin, China. Quaternary International, 1-8. Doi: 10.1016/j.quaint. 2008.12.014.
Elfert S, Bormann H, 2010. Simulated impact of past and possible future land use changes on the hydrological response of the Northern German lowland Hunte catchment. Journal of Hydrology 383 (3): 245-255.
Guevara E, 2003.Engineering design parameters of storms in Venezuela. Hydrology Days 37: 80-91.
Kathol JP, Werner HD and Trooien TP, 2003. Predicting Runoff for Frequency Based Storm Using a Prediction- Runoff Model, A. S. A. E. South Dakota, USA.
Miller SN, Kepner WG, Mehaffey MH, Hernandez M and Miller WP, 2002. Integrating landscape assessment and hydrologic modeling for land coverchange analysis. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 38(4): 915-929.
Ragab R, and Cooper JD, 1993. Variability of unsaturated zone water transport parameters: implication for hydrological modeling. In situ measurements. Journal of Hydrology 148: 109-131.
Schilling K, ChanKS, LiuHand ZhangYK, 2010. Quantifying the effect of land useland coverchange on increasing discharge in the upper Mississippi River. Journal ­­­of Hydrology. Doi: 10.1016/jhydrol.